Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Adalah face Al-Raed.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Raed travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Adalah in Pro League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Adalah stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Adalah's home record over their last 9 home games: 3W 2D 4L (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Adalah at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Raed's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Adalah, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2022, ended Al-Adalah 1–2 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Adalah in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 47% versus Al-Raed 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 53% | Al-Raed 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.842 / defence 1.129 | Al-Raed attack 0.911 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.296. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 19 games and Al-Raed's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.09 | Draw 3.65 | Al-Raed 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 44% (last 9 home games) | Al-Raed 60% (last 10 away games).

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