Al-Adalah 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Adalah versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Adalah have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Adalah have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Adalah against 1.20 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Adalah 0W, Al-Ettifaq 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Adalah — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 59% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.37 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.902 / defence 1.224 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.710 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Data: 29 Al-Adalah games / 59 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Adalah are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Adalah 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Adalah 1.37 / Al-Ettifaq 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.902 / def 1.224 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.710 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Adalah (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Adalah 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Adalah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Adalah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Adalah's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.71x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Adalah Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.67
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.50
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.14 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Adalah come into this having played 29 games, going 7W 7D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Al-Adalah against 1.17 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Adalah's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ettifaq's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Adalah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Adalah are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 0.90 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Adalah or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Adalah have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-2 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 43%, Al-Ettifaq 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Adalah) and 43% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 43% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Adalah's recent games and 43% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Adalah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Adalah 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.37 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31%, with Al-Adalah to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 59%, Al-Ettifaq 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Adalah 0.97 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.