Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Abha face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Abha's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Abha.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 2–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 68% | Al-Ittihad FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.919 / defence 1.328 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.198 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.418. Data: 59 Abha games / 59 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 22% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 22% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Abha 1.35 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.919 / def 1.328 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.198 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Abha xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Al-Ittihad FC xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Abha 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Abha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
22%
4.59
21%
4.81
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Abha xG
Total xG
3.61
2.26
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
10%
9.56
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
2%
43.93
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Abha and 2.26 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 7D 35L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.07 PPG from 59 outings (37W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 14W 5D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 29 outings (17W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.95 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 17W 7D 35L in their last 59 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 11L in their last 59 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.62 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 62%, Al-Ittihad FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Abha and 62% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Abha's games and 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Abha's matches and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Abha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.26 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.92 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 22% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Abha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 68%, Al-Ittihad FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.