Zenit 0-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zenit face CSKA Moscow.

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Fixture Analysis

Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Zenit have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

CSKA Moscow — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

CSKA Moscow away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Zenit) versus 1.80 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Zenit have won 3, CSKA Moscow 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Zenit 1–0 CSKA Moscow — a Zenit win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 48% versus CSKA Moscow 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 50% | CSKA Moscow 54%). Note also that CSKA Moscow surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.16 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.035 / defence 1.027 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.070 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.269. Data: built from Zenit's last 48 games and CSKA Moscow's last 48.

Result probabilities: Zenit 28% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 39%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 3.56 | Draw 3.04 | CSKA Moscow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 60% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 away games).

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