Torpedo Moskva 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod meet at Stadion Luzhniki in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Torpedo Moskva (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Luzhniki, Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 0D 4L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nizhny Novgorod are 0.60 PPG clear of Torpedo Moskva in recent Premier League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Torpedo Moskva have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nizhny Novgorod in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Torpedo Moskva goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 46% versus Nizhny Novgorod 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 46% | Nizhny Novgorod 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 0.98 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.654 / defence 1.344 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.978 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.274. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Torpedo Moskva games / 41 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 20% | Draw 29% | Nizhny Novgorod 51%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Nizhny Novgorod 1.96. Nizhny Novgorod hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torpedo Moskva 60% | Nizhny Novgorod 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 20% | Draw 29% | Nizhny Novgorod 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Torpedo Moskva 0.98 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.654 / def 1.344 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.978 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Nizhny Novgorod xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Torpedo Moskva 0 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 20% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Torpedo Moskva's attack at 0.65x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.98x) against Torpedo Moskva's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
20%
5.03
29%
3.49
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.65
1.67
Nizhny Novgorod xG
5.03
20%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
26.83
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.67 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Torpedo Moskva have picked up 0.45 PPG on a 1W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nizhny Novgorod are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torpedo Moskva.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torpedo Moskva have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nizhny Novgorod come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.55 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Nizhny Novgorod's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.60 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
2
Draws
0
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Torpedo Moskva.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 60%, Nizhny Novgorod 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Torpedo Moskva and 60% for Nizhny Novgorod. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Torpedo Moskva's games and 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Torpedo Moskva's matches and 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's.
Do Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Torpedo Moskva's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torpedo Moskva and Nizhny Novgorod finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 0.98 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.67 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torpedo Moskva fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.65 / defence 1.34 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 20% | Draw 29% | Nizhny Novgorod 51%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 46%, Nizhny Novgorod 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nizhny Novgorod arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torpedo Moskva (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.