Spartak Moscow 2-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 39%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow host CSKA Moscow at Otkritie Bank Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Otkritie Bank Arena this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Otkritie Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour CSKA Moscow — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 0, CSKA Moscow 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 67% versus CSKA Moscow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 54% | CSKA Moscow 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.71 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.334 / defence 1.076 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.119 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.389. Spartak Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Spartak Moscow games / 57 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 37%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | CSKA Moscow 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 60% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.71 / CSKA Moscow 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.334 / def 1.076 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.119 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.67
CSKA Moscow xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Spartak Moscow 2 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 39% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Spartak Moscow 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.33x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.15
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.38
1.67
CSKA Moscow xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.67 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 24W 16D 17L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 31W 11D 15L from 57 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.54 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 5D 11L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.63 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 16D 17L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 31W 11D 15L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.82 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Spartak Moscow
3
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 68%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Spartak Moscow) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Spartak Moscow's games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out CSKA Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat CSKA Moscow 2-1 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.71 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.67 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.33 / defence 1.08 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 0.86, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 37%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 54%, CSKA Moscow 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.54 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.