Spartak Moscow 3-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow host Arsenal Tula at Otkritie Bank Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Otkritie Bank Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Otkritie Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal Tula stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 0.90 PPG versus Arsenal Tula's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 0, Arsenal Tula 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 56% versus Arsenal Tula 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 39% | Arsenal Tula 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.47 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.911 / defence 1.236 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.713 / defence 1.613. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.238. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.613 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Spartak Moscow games / 23 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 28%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Arsenal Tula 3.57. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Arsenal Tula 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.47 / Arsenal Tula 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.911 / def 1.236 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.713 / def 1.613 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Arsenal Tula xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 45% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): Spartak Moscow 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal Tula 0W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (0.91) and Arsenal Tula's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.72
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Arsenal Tula xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.09 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 6D 10L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal Tula's form line: 5W 6D 12L from 23 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.17 PPG, Arsenal Tula on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.04 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.36 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 1, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Spartak Moscow 3-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 73%, Arsenal Tula 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Spartak Moscow and 73% for Arsenal Tula. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Spartak Moscow's games and 54% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 73% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Arsenal Tula 3-0 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.47 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arsenal Tula landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.71 / defence 1.61, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 28%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 39%, Arsenal Tula 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.17 PPG, Arsenal Tula 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.