Rubin 1-2 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC UFA at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs FC UFA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rubin host FC UFA at Kazan' Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rubin — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rubin at Kazan' Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC UFA have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rubin 0.70 PPG, FC UFA 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rubin have won 0, FC UFA 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rubin in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC UFA in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rubin 55% and FC UFA 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 55% | FC UFA 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.07 xG and FC UFA 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.789 / defence 1.647 | FC UFA attack 0.761 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.196. Rubin's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Rubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Rubin games / 29 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 27% | Draw 26% | FC UFA 47%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | FC UFA 2.13. FC UFA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC UFA as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC UFA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 50% | FC UFA 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 27% | Draw 26% | FC UFA 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Rubin 1.07 / FC UFA 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.789 / def 1.647 | FC UFA attack 0.761 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: FC UFA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC UFA xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs FC UFA kick off?
Rubin vs FC UFA kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC UFA?
Rubin 1 - 2 FC UFA.
Where is Rubin vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC UFA part of?
Rubin vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 27% chance of winning, FC UFA a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC UFA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rubin and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC UFA?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 0W | Draws 1 | FC UFA 0W.
What form are Rubin and FC UFA in?
Rubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC UFA (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.79x the league average against FC UFA's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC UFA Win
27%
3.68
26%
3.87
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.57
1.50
FC UFA xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
16.45
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rubin and 1.50 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC UFA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rubin's recent record stands at 8W 5D 16L from 29 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
FC UFA, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 12L across 29 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rubin on 1.00 PPG, FC UFA on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 5W 2D 7L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC UFA's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rubin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 0.93 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Current Season
FC UFA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and FC UFA in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 games (1.00 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 5W 12D 12L in their last 29 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC UFA away?
Rubin's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.21 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rubin
1
Draws
1
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, Rubin have won 0, FC UFA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Rubin 1-2 FC UFA.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC UFA?
FC UFA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rubin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, FC UFA 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rubin) and 43% (FC UFA).
On the defensive side: FC UFA in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play FC UFA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 57% of FC UFA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rubin's recent games and 43% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and FC UFA tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC UFA edge out Rubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC UFA beat Rubin 1-2 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.07 xG and FC UFA 1.50 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.79 / defence 1.65 against FC UFA attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 27% | Draw 26% | FC UFA 47%, with FC UFA to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 55%, FC UFA 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC UFA's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.00 PPG, FC UFA 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC UFA win broke the near-deadlock. FC UFA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.