Rubin 3-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Rostov (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rubin face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Rubin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FC Rostov have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Rostov's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC Rostov arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Rostov have the stronger record — 3 wins to Rubin's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Rubin 0–3 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC Rostov have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 41% versus FC Rostov 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 37% | FC Rostov 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rubin surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while FC Rostov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.83 xG and FC Rostov 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.769 / defence 1.010 | FC Rostov attack 0.963 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.230. Rubin's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Rubin's last 27 games and FC Rostov's last 57.
Result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.97 | Draw 3.23 | FC Rostov 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Rubin's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rubin 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Rubin 0.83 / FC Rostov 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.769 / def 1.010 | FC Rostov attack 0.963 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Rostov xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Rubin vs FC Rostov kick off?
Rubin vs FC Rostov kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Rubin 3 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Rubin vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC Rostov part of?
Rubin vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 25% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rubin and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Rubin vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.96x) against Rubin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 27 games and FC Rostov's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
25%
3.97
31%
3.23
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.03
1.20
FC Rostov xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Rubin and 1.20 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rubin come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 8D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, FC Rostov sit at 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Rubin against 1.48 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rubin's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across their last 13 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Rostov have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.44 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Rubin vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC Rostov away?
Rubin's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Rubin or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 5-1 Rubin on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rubin
2
Draws
4
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Rostov?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 3, FC Rostov have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: FC Rostov 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 54%, FC Rostov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rubin) and 46% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Rostov in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rubin's recent matches and 46% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rubin and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rubin's recent games and 46% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Rubin's recent matches and 62% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat FC Rostov 3-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.83 xG and FC Rostov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against FC Rostov attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Rubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 37%, FC Rostov 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.41 PPG, FC Rostov 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.