Rubin 1-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kazan' Arena plays host to Rubin versus Arsenal Tula in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rubin have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kazan' Arena, Rubin have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arsenal Tula (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Arsenal Tula have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rubin, 0 for Arsenal Tula and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Rubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Arsenal Tula goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rubin 64% and Arsenal Tula 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 56% | Arsenal Tula 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.62 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.909 / defence 1.373 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.650 / defence 1.642. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.193. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.642 — this is suppressing Rubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Rubin games / 25 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 49% | Draw 28% | Arsenal Tula 23%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Arsenal Tula 4.35. Rubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rubin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 60% | Arsenal Tula 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 49% | Draw 28% | Arsenal Tula 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Rubin 1.62 / Arsenal Tula 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.909 / def 1.373 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.650 / def 1.642 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Rubin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Arsenal Tula xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Rubin vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Arsenal Tula?
Rubin 1 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Rubin vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Rubin vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 49% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rubin and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 1W | Draws 0 | Arsenal Tula 0W.
What form are Rubin and Arsenal Tula in?
Rubin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rubin's attack rating (0.91) and Arsenal Tula's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arsenal Tula's attack (0.65x) against Rubin's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.56
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Arsenal Tula xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rubin and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rubin and 1.06 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rubin come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 5D 13L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Rubin against 0.84 for Arsenal Tula. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rubin's home form reads 4W 2D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (2W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.00 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Arsenal Tula in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 7W 5D 13L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Rubin's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.17 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rubin
0
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Rubin have won 2, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Rubin 1-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Arsenal Tula?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 58%, Arsenal Tula 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Rubin and 75% for Arsenal Tula. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Arsenal Tula?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Rubin's recent matches and 50% of Arsenal Tula's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Rubin's matches and 75% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do Rubin and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Arsenal Tula 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Arsenal Tula 1-0 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.62 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arsenal Tula landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.91 / defence 1.37 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.65 / defence 1.64, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 49% | Draw 28% | Arsenal Tula 23%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 56%, Arsenal Tula 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.04 PPG, Arsenal Tula 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.