Nizhny Novgorod 3-4 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Krasnodar — this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar meet at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Nizhny Novgorod at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Nizhny Novgorod, 1.30 for FC Krasnodar — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to FC Krasnodar, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2023, ended Nizhny Novgorod 0–1 FC Krasnodar — a FC Krasnodar win.
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 37% versus FC Krasnodar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 41% | FC Krasnodar 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nizhny Novgorod surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while FC Krasnodar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.995 / defence 0.869 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.040 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.028. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 51 games and FC Krasnodar's last 51.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 40% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 23%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.47 | Draw 2.75 | FC Krasnodar 4.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nizhny Novgorod are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 home games and FC Krasnodar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 40% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 / FC Krasnodar 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.995 / def 0.869 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.040 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Krasnodar xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Nizhny Novgorod 3 - 4 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 40% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.04x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 51 games and FC Krasnodar's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
40%
2.47
36%
2.75
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.20
0.93
FC Krasnodar xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.93 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Nizhny Novgorod have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 10D 24L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 24W 16D 11L from 51 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nizhny Novgorod.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 6D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Nizhny Novgorod are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 10D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.82 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar in 63%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 17W 10D 24L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 24W 16D 11L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won each of the latest 8 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won FC Krasnodar 5-0 Nizhny Novgorod on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
9
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: FC Krasnodar 5-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 42%, FC Krasnodar 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 58% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 31%; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 65% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 58% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 77% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Krasnodar defy the odds to beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-4 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.93 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Krasnodar outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 40% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 23%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a FC Krasnodar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 41%, FC Krasnodar 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.