Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nizhny Novgorod face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Nizhny Novgorod plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
CSKA Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 1.10 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod in recent Premier League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Nizhny Novgorod's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 2–6 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 48% versus CSKA Moscow 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 39% | CSKA Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.078 / defence 1.508 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.026 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.378. Data: 31 Nizhny Novgorod games / 31 CSKA Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 22% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 54%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | CSKA Moscow 1.85. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 70% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 22% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.36 / CSKA Moscow 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.078 / def 1.508 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.026 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
2.13
CSKA Moscow xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 3 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 22% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 4W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 1.08x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.03x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
22%
4.47
24%
4.16
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.49
2.13
CSKA Moscow xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
12%
8.42
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
3%
37.62
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 2.13 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 9W 5D 17L from 31 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 6L across 31 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Nizhny Novgorod are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 4W 8D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.81 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 13D 6L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.50 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
CSKA Moscow go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 2-6 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
8
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 56%, CSKA Moscow 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 56% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 69% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 56% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 2.13 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.4 short of their projected output. CSKA Moscow outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.08 / defence 1.51 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 22% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 54%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 39%, CSKA Moscow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.