Krylia Sovetov 3-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Khimki at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov at Solidarnost Arena this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
On current form, Krylia Sovetov have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Khimki in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus Khimki 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 46% | Khimki 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.95 xG and Khimki 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / defence 1.068 | Khimki attack 0.761 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.110. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Krylia Sovetov games / 13 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 62% | Draw 21% | Khimki 17%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Khimki 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Khimki 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 62% | Draw 21% | Khimki 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.95 / Khimki 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / def 1.068 | Khimki attack 0.761 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Khimki xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov 3 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 62% chance of winning, Khimki a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.10x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.69
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.85
0.90
Khimki xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
42.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.90 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 1D 6L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khimki's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.85 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Khimki in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Khimki in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 1D 6L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Khimki away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.80 PPG; Khimki away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Khimki in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Khimki have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Khimki?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 40%, Khimki 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Krylia Sovetov and 80% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khimki in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 60% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 80% of Khimki's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Khimki tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Khimki in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Khimki 3-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.95 xG and Khimki 0.90 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Khimki attack 0.76 / defence 1.56, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 62% | Draw 21% | Khimki 17%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 46%, Khimki 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khimki's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.