Krylia Sovetov 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Krylia Sovetov face CSKA Moscow.

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Analysis

CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 10:00 UK time.

Current Form

Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

CSKA Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.80 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have the stronger record — 4 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2024, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–2 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.

CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus CSKA Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 54% | CSKA Moscow 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Krylia Sovetov surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.85 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.843 / defence 1.021 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.085 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.304. CSKA Moscow bring a tight defence (rating 0.759, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Krylia Sovetov's projected output down. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 44 games and CSKA Moscow's last 44.

Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 19% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 48%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 5.33 | Draw 3.00 | CSKA Moscow 2.09. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 40% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 away games).

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