FC Krasnodar 0-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov meet at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Stadion FK Krasnodar: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Krylia Sovetov 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 50% | Krylia Sovetov 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.47 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.036 / defence 1.047 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.816 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.132. Data: 12 FC Krasnodar games / 12 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 49% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Krylia Sovetov 4.00. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: FC Krasnodar 40% | Krylia Sovetov 71%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 49% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.47 / Krylia Sovetov 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.036 / def 1.047 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.816 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Krylia Sovetov xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 49% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.82x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.80
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.44
0.97
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.97 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.00 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.20 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 40%, Krylia Sovetov 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC Krasnodar) and 60% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 60% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 60% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat FC Krasnodar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Krasnodar 0-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.47 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.97 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 49% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 25%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 50%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.