FC Krasnodar 1-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion FK Krasnodar — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Akhmat have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Akhmat have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Krasnodar's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Akhmat's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 0 for Akhmat and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 52% versus Akhmat 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 45% | Akhmat 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.11 xG and Akhmat 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.860 / defence 0.975 | Akhmat attack 0.684 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.196. Data: 29 FC Krasnodar games / 29 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 43% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Akhmat 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 50% | Akhmat 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 43% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.11 / Akhmat 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.860 / def 0.975 | Akhmat attack 0.684 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Akhmat xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 43% chance of winning, Akhmat a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Akhmat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (0.86) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.68x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.21
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
1.91
0.80
Akhmat xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.80 for Akhmat, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 14W 7D 8L from 29 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 13W 2D 14L across 29 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.41 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 4W 2D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.21 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
Akhmat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 13W 2D 14L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Akhmat away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.86 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Akhmat in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, Akhmat have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Akhmat 0-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 43%, Akhmat 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Krasnodar) and 50% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 29% of games; Akhmat in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 50% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 50% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Akhmat tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar and Akhmat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 30, as FC Krasnodar and Akhmat drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.11 xG and Akhmat 0.80 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Akhmat attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 43% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 26%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 45%, Akhmat 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.69 PPG, Akhmat 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.