Khimki 1-3 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Khimki versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khimki have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Spartak Moscow are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Khimki 1W, Spartak Moscow 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.99 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.821 / defence 1.098 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.782 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.455. Data: 1 Khimki games / 31 Spartak Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Spartak Moscow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Khimki 0.99 / Spartak Moscow 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.821 / def 1.098 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.782 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Khimki vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Khimki 1 - 3 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Khimki vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Khimki vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 27% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Khimki and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Spartak Moscow?
Record (4 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | Spartak Moscow 2W.
What form are Khimki and Spartak Moscow in?
Khimki (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.82x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.78x) against Khimki's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
27%
3.74
33%
2.99
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.24
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Khimki and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Khimki and 1.25 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khimki's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Khimki by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spartak Moscow heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Khimki are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Spartak Moscow go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spartak Moscow won 5-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Spartak Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Khimki's recent matches and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Khimki's recent games and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.99 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 40%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 0%, Spartak Moscow 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Spartak Moscow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.