Khimki 3-3 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Khimki welcome FC Krasnodar to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Khimki, Khimki have gone 1W 5D 1L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. FC Krasnodar's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Khimki's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khimki, 0 for FC Krasnodar and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Khimki winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Khimki trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Krasnodar trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 47% versus FC Krasnodar 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 40% | FC Krasnodar 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.83 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.733 / defence 0.969 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.024 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.082. Khimki's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Khimki games / 15 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | FC Krasnodar 40%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | FC Krasnodar 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 57% | FC Krasnodar 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | FC Krasnodar 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Khimki 0.83 / FC Krasnodar 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.733 / def 0.969 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.024 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Krasnodar xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Khimki vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Khimki 3 - 3 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Khimki vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 27% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Khimki and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 0W.
What form are Khimki and FC Krasnodar in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.73x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
27%
3.66
33%
3.07
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Khimki xG
Total xG
1.91
1.07
FC Krasnodar xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Khimki and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Khimki and 1.07 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khimki come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 7D 6L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khimki's home form reads 1W 5D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 7D 6L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Khimki's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.14 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Khimki or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when FC Krasnodar won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
2
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Khimki 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 57%, FC Krasnodar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Khimki and 43% for FC Krasnodar.
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Krasnodar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Khimki's games and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Khimki's recent games and 43% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 16, as Khimki and FC Krasnodar drew 3-3 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.83 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 27% | Draw 33% | FC Krasnodar 40%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 40%, FC Krasnodar 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.