FC UFA 2-1 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC UFA at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC UFA host Arsenal Tula at BetBoom Аrena in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC UFA have posted 2W 6D 2L at BetBoom Аrena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal Tula have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC UFA at 0.80 PPG versus Arsenal Tula's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC UFA, 0 for Arsenal Tula and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC UFA in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC UFA 64% and Arsenal Tula 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC UFA 36% | Arsenal Tula 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC UFA 1.22 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC UFA attack 0.720 / defence 0.980 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.569 / defence 1.544. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.221. FC UFA's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.544 — this is suppressing FC UFA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC UFA games / 28 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC UFA 49% | Draw 30% | Arsenal Tula 21%. Fair-value odds: FC UFA 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Arsenal Tula 4.76. FC UFA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Arsenal Tula's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC UFA at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC UFA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC UFA 60% | Arsenal Tula 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BetBoom Аrena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC UFA 49% | Draw 30% | Arsenal Tula 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG FC UFA 1.22 / Arsenal Tula 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC UFA attack 0.720 / def 0.980 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.569 / def 1.544 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: FC UFA (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC UFA xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Arsenal Tula xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at BetBoom Аrena.
What was the final score in FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
FC UFA 2 - 1 Arsenal Tula.
Where is FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at BetBoom Аrena.
What competition is FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula part of?
FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives FC UFA a 49% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC UFA the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both FC UFA and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): FC UFA 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal Tula 0W.
What form are FC UFA and Arsenal Tula in?
FC UFA (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC UFA's attack at 0.72x the league average against Arsenal Tula's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus FC UFA's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC UFA Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.29
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC UFA xG
Total xG
1.90
0.68
Arsenal Tula xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are FC UFA and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC UFA and 0.68 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC UFA come into this having played 28 games, going 4W 12D 12L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 0.82 PPG from 28 outings (5W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC UFA on 0.86 PPG, Arsenal Tula on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC UFA's home form reads 2W 8D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.50 points per game from 14 outings (2W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC UFA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC UFA are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.00 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Arsenal Tula in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC UFA
Current Season
Arsenal Tula
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC UFA and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
FC UFA have gone 4W 12D 12L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC UFA at home or Arsenal Tula away?
FC UFA's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC UFA at home: 1.00 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC UFA
1
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, FC UFA have won 1, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC UFA and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when FC UFA 2-1 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between FC UFA and Arsenal Tula?
FC UFA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC UFA 71%, Arsenal Tula 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FC UFA) and 71% (Arsenal Tula).
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC UFA home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC UFA play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC UFA's games and 50% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of FC UFA's recent games and 71% of Arsenal Tula's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC UFA and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
FC UFA have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC UFA edge out Arsenal Tula 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC UFA beat Arsenal Tula 2-1 at BetBoom Аrena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC UFA 1.22 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.68 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC UFA attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.57 / defence 1.54, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC UFA 49% | Draw 30% | Arsenal Tula 21%, with FC UFA to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC UFA 36%, Arsenal Tula 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC UFA's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC UFA 0.86 PPG, Arsenal Tula 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC UFA win broke the near-deadlock. FC UFA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.