Fakel 1-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fakel face Dynamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Dynamo at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fakel stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Fakel have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dynamo away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fakel 1.60 PPG, Dynamo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Fakel 0–0 Dynamo — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fakel in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dynamo in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 47% versus Dynamo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 36% | Dynamo 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fakel surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Dynamo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dynamo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Fakel recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.23 xG and Dynamo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.811 / defence 0.830 | Dynamo attack 1.378 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.016. Dynamo have an above-average attack rating of 1.378, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Data: built from Fakel's last 47 games and Dynamo's last 47.
Result probabilities: Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.72 | Draw 3.37 | Dynamo 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fakel at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fakel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fakel 30% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Fakel 1.23 / Dynamo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.811 / def 0.830 | Dynamo attack 1.378 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Fakel (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dynamo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fakel vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does Fakel vs Dynamo kick off?
Fakel vs Dynamo kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Fakel 1 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Fakel vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Dynamo part of?
Fakel vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 37% chance of winning, Dynamo a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fakel and Dynamo will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Fakel vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.81x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fakel's last 47 games and Dynamo's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.37
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.39
1.16
Dynamo xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fakel vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fakel and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fakel and 1.16 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 16D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (21W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 8W 11D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.64 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
Fakel (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fakel
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Fakel vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are Fakel and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Dynamo away?
Fakel's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.46 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fakel or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dynamo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Fakel's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Fakel
4
Draws
2
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Fakel vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dynamo?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Fakel 1-2 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 50%, Dynamo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fakel) and 71% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fakel vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fakel and Dynamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fakel's games and 71% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fakel and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fakel's recent games and 71% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Fakel's recent matches and 83% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 18, as Fakel and Dynamo drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.23 xG and Dynamo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo attack 1.38 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 36%, Dynamo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.