Fakel 1-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Dynamo at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Fakel have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fakel 1.60 PPG, Dynamo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fakel in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dynamo in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 47% versus Dynamo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 36% | Dynamo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.23 xG and Dynamo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.811 / defence 0.830 | Dynamo attack 1.378 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.016. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Fakel games / 47 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Dynamo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fakel at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fakel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fakel 30% | Dynamo 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Fakel 1.23 / Dynamo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.811 / def 0.830 | Dynamo attack 1.378 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Fakel (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dynamo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Dynamo kick off?
Fakel vs Dynamo kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Fakel 1 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Fakel vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Dynamo part of?
Fakel vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 37% chance of winning, Dynamo a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fakel and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dynamo?
Record (3 meetings): Fakel 1W | Draws 2 | Dynamo 0W.
What form are Fakel and Dynamo in?
Fakel (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Dynamo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.81x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.37
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.39
1.16
Dynamo xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fakel and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fakel and 1.16 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 16D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (21W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 8W 11D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.64 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Dynamo away?
Fakel's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.46 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fakel or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dynamo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fakel's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fakel
4
Draws
1
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dynamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Fakel 1-1 Dynamo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 50%, Dynamo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fakel) and 71% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fakel's games and 71% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fakel's recent games and 71% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Dynamo tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 18, as Fakel and Dynamo drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.23 xG and Dynamo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo attack 1.38 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 37% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 34%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 36%, Dynamo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.