Dynamo 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo host CSKA Moscow at VTB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo's home record at VTB Arena: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Dynamo) versus 1.70 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dynamo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, CSKA Moscow in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Dynamo: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for CSKA Moscow, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Dynamo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dynamo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo 65% and CSKA Moscow 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 58% | CSKA Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.47 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.308 / defence 0.970 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.120 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.188. Dynamo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Dynamo games / 40 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 40% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo 70% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 40% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Dynamo 1.47 / CSKA Moscow 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.308 / def 0.970 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.120 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 40% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dynamo and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Dynamo 4W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in?
Dynamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dynamo's attack rating (1.31) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.44
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.77
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.29 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Dynamo have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 22W 10D 8L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 17W 14D 9L from 40 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dynamo on 1.90 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo have posted 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 9D 5L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.88 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 22W 10D 8L in their last 40 games (1.90 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 17W 14D 9L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Dynamo's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 2.20 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Dynamo or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dynamo
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 60%, CSKA Moscow 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Dynamo) and 55% (CSKA Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dynamo's games and 65% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Dynamo's matches and 55% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Dynamo and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Dynamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Dynamo 1-2 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.47 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.31 / defence 0.97 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 40% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 31%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 58%, CSKA Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo 1.90 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.