Baltika 0-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Ural in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Baltika have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ural arrive in superior form — a 1.35 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ural — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 50% versus Ural 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 50% | Ural 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.24 xG and Ural 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.938 / defence 1.123 | Ural attack 0.995 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.356. Ural's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Baltika games / 34 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Ural 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ural if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 50% | Ural 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Baltika 1.24 / Ural 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.938 / def 1.123 | Ural attack 0.995 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Ural (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ural xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Ural kick off?
Baltika vs Ural kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Ural?
Baltika 0 - 1 Ural.
Where is Baltika vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Ural part of?
Baltika vs Ural is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 29% chance of winning, Ural a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Baltika and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baltika and Ural in?
Baltika (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-W-L. Ural (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.99x) against Baltika's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.36
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.75
1.51
Ural xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baltika and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Baltika and 1.51 for Ural, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Baltika, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ural sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ural carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ural in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Early Season
Ural
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Ural in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Ural have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Baltika or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ural in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Baltika
0
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Ural?
From 2 meetings on record, Baltika have won 0, Ural have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Ural 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 50%, Ural 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Baltika) and 50% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 50%; Baltika have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Baltika's recent matches and 50% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Ural tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ural in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ural edge out Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.24 xG and Ural 1.51 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Ural attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 29% | Draw 30% | Ural 41%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 50%, Ural 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ural arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.