Arsenal Tula 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Arsenal plays host to Arsenal Tula versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 7 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arsenal Tula's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Arsenal Tula have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Premier League outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.00 for Arsenal Tula, 0.00 for Krylia Sovetov — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 0.74 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.829 / defence 1.298 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.780 / away 1.698. Data: 2 Arsenal Tula games / 2 Krylia Sovetov games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 14% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 64%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Krylia Sovetov 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 14% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Arsenal Tula 0.74 / Krylia Sovetov 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.829 / def 1.298 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.780 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Krylia Sovetov xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov?
Arsenal Tula 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 14% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arsenal Tula's attack rating (0.83) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.85x) against Arsenal Tula's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
14%
7.06
22%
4.63
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.62
1.87
Krylia Sovetov xG
7.06
14%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
2%
45.93
31%
3.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.87 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arsenal Tula's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Arsenal Tula against 0.00 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal Tula are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arsenal Tula
1
Draws
0
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov?
Arsenal Tula have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arsenal Tula's recent matches and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal Tula vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Arsenal Tula and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arsenal Tula defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal Tula beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 0.74 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.87 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal Tula beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.83 / defence 1.30 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 14% | Draw 22% | Krylia Sovetov 64%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Arsenal Tula win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 100%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal Tula 0.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal Tula win broke the near-deadlock. Arsenal Tula scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.