Vizela 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 46%, yet in-form GIL Vicente provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vizela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 21:15 UK time.
Current Form
Vizela's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Vizela have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Vizela are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
GIL Vicente away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, GIL Vicente are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Vizela, 1 for GIL Vicente and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Vizela 1–1 GIL Vicente — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 38% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.59 xG and GIL Vicente 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.988 / defence 1.080 | GIL Vicente attack 0.928 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.236. Data: built from Vizela's last 37 games and GIL Vicente's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.19 | Draw 4.05 | GIL Vicente 3.37. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIL Vicente (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vizela 60% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Vizela 37 games, GIL Vicente 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 21:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vizela 1.59 / GIL Vicente 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.988 / def 1.080 | GIL Vicente attack 0.928 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Vizela (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.24
GIL Vicente xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does Vizela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 21:15 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Vizela 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Vizela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Vizela vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vizela and GIL Vicente will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vizela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.93x) against Vizela's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 37 games and GIL Vicente's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.05
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.83
1.24
GIL Vicente xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Vizela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vizela and 1.24 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 8D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (11W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Vizela against 1.08 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vizela's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across their last 18 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.72 points per game from their last 18 away games (4W 1D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.08 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Vizela (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Vizela vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or GIL Vicente away?
Vizela's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.11 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Vizela and GIL Vicente, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and GIL Vicente?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 39%, GIL Vicente 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 61% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 44% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and GIL Vicente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Vizela's recent matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vizela's matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Vizela and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Vizela's recent matches and 72% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vizela edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.59 xG and GIL Vicente 1.24 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 46% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 30%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.11 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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