Vizela 2-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vizela have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estádio Do Vizela — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Arouca's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Vizela, 0.90 for Arouca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vizela 1W, Arouca 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with Vizela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 60% versus Arouca 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | Arouca 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.94 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.716 / defence 1.193 | Arouca attack 0.779 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.189. Vizela's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Vizela games / 30 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Arouca 38%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Arouca 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 40% | Arouca 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Arouca 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Vizela 0.94 / Arouca 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.716 / def 1.193 | Arouca attack 0.779 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Arouca (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Arouca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Arouca kick off?
Vizela vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Arouca?
Vizela 2 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Vizela vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Arouca part of?
Vizela vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 29% chance of winning, Arouca a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vizela and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Arouca?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 1W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Vizela and Arouca in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.72) and Arouca's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.78x) against Vizela's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
29%
3.40
32%
3.08
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.04
1.10
Arouca xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Vizela and 1.10 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 6W 11D 13L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 15L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Vizela against 0.90 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 3W 6D 6L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.93 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Arouca in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Arouca have gone 6W 9D 15L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Arouca away?
Vizela's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.00 PPG; Arouca away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 5-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
1
Draws
3
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Arouca?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Arouca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Arouca 5-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 53%, Arouca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Vizela) and 53% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Arouca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vizela's games and 60% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vizela's recent games and 53% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Arouca tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arouca in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vizela defy the odds to beat Arouca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.94 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Arouca attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Arouca 38%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vizela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Arouca 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.97 PPG, Arouca 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.