Sporting CP 3-0 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sporting CP vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Alvalade plays host to Sporting CP versus Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sporting CP's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sporting CP have posted 8W 0D 2L at Estádio José Alvalade — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Sporting CP are significantly better at Estádio José Alvalade than their overall form suggests.
Guimaraes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Sporting CP, 1.70 for Guimaraes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sporting CP 2W, Guimaraes 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Sporting CP winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 44% versus Guimaraes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 56% | Guimaraes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.73 xG and Guimaraes 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.374 / defence 0.906 | Guimaraes attack 0.936 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.068. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Sporting CP games / 45 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 57% | Draw 24% | Guimaraes 20%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Guimaraes 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 30% | Guimaraes 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 57% | Draw 24% | Guimaraes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Sporting CP 1.73 / Guimaraes 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.374 / def 0.906 | Guimaraes attack 0.936 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Guimaraes xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Guimaraes kick off?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Sporting CP 3 - 0 Guimaraes.
Where is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes part of?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 57% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sporting CP and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
Record (2 meetings): Sporting CP 2W | Draws 0 | Guimaraes 0W.
What form are Sporting CP and Guimaraes in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Guimaraes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.37x the league average against Guimaraes's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (0.94x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.23
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.64
0.91
Guimaraes xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
28.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.91 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sporting CP come into this having played 45 games, going 33W 5D 7L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guimaraes sit at 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (19W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sporting CP's home form reads 18W 1D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Guimaraes have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sporting CP are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.40 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Guimaraes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 33W 5D 7L in their last 45 games (2.31 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Guimaraes away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.50 PPG; Guimaraes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sporting CP
1
Draws
1
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 8, Guimaraes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Sporting CP 5-1 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 27%, Guimaraes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sporting CP) and 41% (Guimaraes).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Guimaraes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 50% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sporting CP's recent games and 41% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guimaraes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 3-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.73 xG and Guimaraes 0.91 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.37 / defence 0.91 against Guimaraes attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 57% | Draw 24% | Guimaraes 20%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 56%, Guimaraes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guimaraes's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.