SC Braga 4-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Vizela travel to Estádio Municipal de Braga to take on SC Braga. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 November 2021, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Braga have posted 2W 2D 1L at Estádio Municipal de Braga — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vizela — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, SC Braga have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Vizela trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 54% versus Vizela 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 54% | Vizela 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.77 xG and Vizela 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.213 / defence 1.034 | Vizela attack 0.696 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.318. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing SC Braga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 SC Braga games / 11 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 53% | Draw 30% | Vizela 17%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Vizela 5.88. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 60% | Vizela 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 53% | Draw 30% | Vizela 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Braga 1.77 / Vizela 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.213 / def 1.034 | Vizela attack 0.696 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Vizela xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Vizela kick off?
SC Braga vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Vizela?
SC Braga 4 - 1 Vizela.
Where is SC Braga vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Vizela part of?
SC Braga vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 53% chance of winning, Vizela a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Braga and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Vizela in?
SC Braga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (1.21) and Vizela's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.34
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Vizela xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
34.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.95 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 4D 2L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (1W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Braga's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.82 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 64%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Vizela in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 7D 3L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Vizela away?
SC Braga's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.60 PPG; Vizela away: 0.60 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vizela in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Vizela runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
SC Braga
0
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 6, Vizela have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when SC Braga 2-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Vizela?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Vizela tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 60%, Vizela 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for SC Braga and 60% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vizela in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SC Braga's recent matches and 40% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of SC Braga's matches and 60% of Vizela's.
Do SC Braga and Vizela tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vizela in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Vizela 4-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.77 xG and Vizela 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against Vizela attack 0.70 / defence 1.37, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 53% | Draw 30% | Vizela 17%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 54%, Vizela 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.