SC Braga 2-1 Farense – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Braga at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Farense encounter.

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Analysis

Farense make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Braga to face SC Braga in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Current Form

SC Braga's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, SC Braga have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Farense have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Farense away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward SC Braga. A 0.70 PPG lead over Farense (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Braga's last 10 home games and Farense's last 10 away games) — SC Braga have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Farense in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SC Braga, 1 for Farense and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended SC Braga 1–3 Farense — a Farense win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

SC Braga half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Farense half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Braga 76% and Farense 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 67% | Farense 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.88 xG and Farense 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.062 / defence 0.867 | Farense attack 0.955 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.212. Data: built from SC Braga's last 55 games and Farense's last 21.

Result probabilities: SC Braga 58% | Draw 22% | Farense 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.73 | Draw 4.48 | Farense 5.04. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Braga's last 10 home games and Farense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Braga 80% (last 10 home games) | Farense 60% (last 10 away games).

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