SC Braga 3-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Braga vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Braga to face SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 1 April 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Braga have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Braga, SC Braga have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benfica (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benfica have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for SC Braga, 2.10 for Benfica — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SC Braga 0W, Benfica 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–6 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Braga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 48% versus Benfica 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 48% | Benfica 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.13 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 0.996 / defence 0.935 | Benfica attack 1.299 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.276. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 SC Braga games / 27 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 25% | Draw 31% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Benfica 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 30% | Benfica 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 25% | Draw 31% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Braga 1.13 / Benfica 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 0.996 / def 0.935 | Benfica attack 1.299 / def 1.138 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Benfica xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Benfica kick off?
SC Braga vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Benfica?
SC Braga 3 - 2 Benfica.
Where is SC Braga vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Benfica part of?
SC Braga vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 25% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Braga and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): SC Braga 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are SC Braga and Benfica in?
SC Braga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (1.00) and Benfica's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.30x) against SC Braga's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
25%
4.02
31%
3.22
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.68
1.55
Benfica xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
18.92
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.55 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, SC Braga have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 14W 7D 6L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 19W 4D 4L from 27 games, 2.26 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Braga.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 10W 2D 1L from 13 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Braga are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.52 scored and 0.93 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into SC Braga's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 67%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Benfica in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 14W 7D 6L in their last 27 games (1.81 PPG), while Benfica have gone 19W 4D 4L in their last 27 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.92 PPG; Benfica away: 2.46 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Benfica in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Braga have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SC Braga
3
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 3, Benfica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Benfica 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 38%, Benfica 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SC Braga) and 69% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Benfica in 38%; SC Braga have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of SC Braga's recent matches and 62% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of SC Braga's matches and 69% of Benfica's.
Do SC Braga and Benfica tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Benfica in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Braga defy the odds to beat Benfica 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Benfica 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.13 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 25% | Draw 31% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a SC Braga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 48%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.81. Form was overturned, with SC Braga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.