Portimonense 2-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Portimonense welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal de Portimão. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Portimonense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimonense have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Portimonense at 1.10 PPG versus Chaves's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Portimonense, 1 for Chaves and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Chaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Chaves in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 41% versus Chaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 41% | Chaves 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.80 xG and Chaves 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.798 / defence 1.126 | Chaves attack 0.764 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.248. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Portimonense games / 44 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 55% | Draw 23% | Chaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Chaves 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Portimonense (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Portimonense 50% | Chaves 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 55% | Draw 23% | Chaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Portimonense 1.80 / Chaves 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.798 / def 1.126 | Chaves attack 0.764 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Chaves xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Chaves kick off?
Portimonense vs Chaves kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Chaves?
Portimonense 2 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Portimonense vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Chaves part of?
Portimonense vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 55% chance of winning, Chaves a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Portimonense and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Chaves?
Record (2 meetings): Portimonense 1W | Draws 0 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Portimonense and Chaves in?
Portimonense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.80x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.33
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.88
1.07
Chaves xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
27.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.07 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portimonense's recent record stands at 13W 6D 25L from 44 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 19L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portimonense on 1.02 PPG, Chaves on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Portimonense are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.07 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Chaves in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 13W 6D 25L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Chaves have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Chaves away?
Portimonense's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.19 PPG; Chaves away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Portimonense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Portimonense's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portimonense
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Chaves 2-3 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Chaves?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 48%, Chaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Portimonense) and 38% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 29% of games; Chaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Portimonense's recent matches and 33% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Portimonense's recent games and 38% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Chaves tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chaves in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Chaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Chaves 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.80 xG and Chaves 1.07 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Chaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 55% | Draw 23% | Chaves 22%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 41%, Chaves 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.02 PPG, Chaves 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.