Portimonense 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portimonense host Benfica at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Portimonense — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Portimonense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benfica in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Portimonense, 0 for Benfica and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Portimonense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Benfica in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 46% versus Benfica 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 33% | Benfica 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 0.85 xG and Benfica 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.739 / defence 1.222 | Benfica attack 1.307 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.330. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Portimonense games / 24 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 12% | Draw 23% | Benfica 65%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 8.33 | Draw 4.35 | Benfica 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 60% | Benfica 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 12% | Draw 23% | Benfica 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Portimonense 0.85 / Benfica 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.739 / def 1.222 | Benfica attack 1.307 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Benfica (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Benfica xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Benfica kick off?
Portimonense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Benfica?
Portimonense 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Portimonense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Benfica part of?
Portimonense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 12% chance of winning, Benfica a 65% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Portimonense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Portimonense 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 0W.
What form are Portimonense and Benfica in?
Portimonense (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Portimonense's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
12%
8.31
23%
4.28
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.98
2.12
Benfica xG
8.31
12%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
12%
8.36
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
1%
69.47
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Portimonense and 2.12 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portimonense's recent record stands at 7W 8D 9L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 4L across 24 games — 2.25 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Portimonense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 2W 4D 6L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 9W 2D 1L across 12 trips, a 2.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portimonense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.62 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Benfica have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 0.83 PPG; Benfica away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Benfica in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portimonense's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Portimonense
0
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 1, Benfica have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Benfica 4-0 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 50%, Benfica 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Portimonense) and 67% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 42%; Portimonense have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Portimonense's recent matches and 58% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Portimonense's recent games and 67% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Benfica tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benfica in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Portimonense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Portimonense 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 0.85 xG and Benfica 2.12 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 1.10, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 12% | Draw 23% | Benfica 65%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 33%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.