Pacos Ferreira 3-1 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rio Ave at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio da Capital do Móvel plays host to Pacos Ferreira versus Rio Ave in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Rio Ave have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rio Ave away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pacos Ferreira, 0 for Rio Ave and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Pacos Ferreira winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rio Ave goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 47% versus Rio Ave 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 50% | Rio Ave 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.10 xG and Rio Ave 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.699 / defence 1.457 | Rio Ave attack 0.988 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.073. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Pacos Ferreira games / 32 Rio Ave games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 27% | Draw 25% | Rio Ave 48%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Rio Ave 2.08. Rio Ave hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rio Ave at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rio Ave if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Rio Ave 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 27% | Draw 25% | Rio Ave 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.10 / Rio Ave 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.699 / def 1.457 | Rio Ave attack 0.988 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Rio Ave (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Rio Ave xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave?
Pacos Ferreira 3 - 1 Rio Ave.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 27% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rio Ave the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 0 | Rio Ave 0W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Rio Ave (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.70) and Rio Ave's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rio Ave's attack (0.99x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rio Ave Win
27%
3.70
25%
3.94
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.64
1.54
Rio Ave xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.31
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.54 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacos Ferreira's recent record stands at 5W 5D 22L from 32 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Rio Ave, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 13L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rio Ave by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacos Ferreira heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pacos Ferreira have managed 2W 2D 12L from 16 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rio Ave's away record stands at 2W 7D 7L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rio Ave's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Rio Ave are on 1.03 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
Rio Ave
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 5W 5D 22L in their last 32 games (0.62 PPG), while Rio Ave have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Rio Ave away?
Rio Ave's away record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.50 PPG; Rio Ave away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Rio Ave been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Rio Ave in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
0
Rio Ave
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave?
From 2 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, Rio Ave have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 3-1 Rio Ave.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 44%, Rio Ave 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pacos Ferreira) and 50% (Rio Ave).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 50% of games; Rio Ave in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Rio Ave away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Rio Ave?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 50% of Rio Ave's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 50% of Rio Ave's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rio Ave in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacos Ferreira cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rio Ave.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Rio Ave 3-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.10 xG and Rio Ave 1.54 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.70 / defence 1.46 against Rio Ave attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 27% | Draw 25% | Rio Ave 48%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Pacos Ferreira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 50%, Rio Ave 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rio Ave's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rio Ave arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Pacos Ferreira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.