Maritimo 1-0 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sporting CP at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sporting CP make the trip to Estádio dos Barreiros to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Estádio dos Barreiros this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sporting CP have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Maritimo, 1 for Sporting CP and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 54% versus Sporting CP 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 44% | Sporting CP 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.01 xG and Sporting CP 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.781 / defence 1.044 | Sporting CP attack 1.127 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.054. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Maritimo games / 48 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 30% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 41%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sporting CP 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | Sporting CP 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 30% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Maritimo 1.01 / Sporting CP 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.781 / def 1.044 | Sporting CP attack 1.127 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sporting CP xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Sporting CP kick off?
Maritimo vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Maritimo 1 - 0 Sporting CP.
Where is Maritimo vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Sporting CP part of?
Maritimo vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 30% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Maritimo and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
Record (2 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 1 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Sporting CP in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.78) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.13x) against Maritimo's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.51
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.24
Sporting CP xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.24 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Maritimo have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 10W 15D 23L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP's form line: 36W 5D 7L from 48 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 15W 4D 4L from 23 away games — 2.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.12 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 10W 15D 23L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 36W 5D 7L in their last 48 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.87 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
2
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Sporting CP have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 48%, Sporting CP 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Maritimo) and 65% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 30%; Maritimo have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Maritimo's recent matches and 61% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Maritimo's recent games and 65% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Sporting CP 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Sporting CP 1-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.01 xG and Sporting CP 1.24 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sporting CP landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Sporting CP attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 30% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 41%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 44%, Sporting CP 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sporting CP's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Maritimo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.