Maritimo 2-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Maritimo take on Pacos Ferreira.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's home record at Estádio dos Barreiros: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Maritimo, 0.80 for Pacos Ferreira — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Maritimo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pacos Ferreira in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 64% versus Pacos Ferreira 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 54% | Pacos Ferreira 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.96 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.803 / defence 1.203 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.736 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Maritimo games / 11 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 26% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 37%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Pacos Ferreira 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Maritimo 60% | Pacos Ferreira 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 26% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Maritimo 0.96 / Pacos Ferreira 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.803 / def 1.203 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.736 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pacos Ferreira xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira?
Maritimo 2 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 26% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.80x the league average against Pacos Ferreira's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.74x) against Maritimo's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.86
37%
2.68
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.14
1.18
Pacos Ferreira xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.18 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Maritimo have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 4D 6L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.64 PPG for Maritimo against 1.00 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacos Ferreira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Pacos Ferreira's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.60 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Maritimo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Maritimo
0
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 3, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 60%, Pacos Ferreira 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Maritimo) and 40% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Pacos Ferreira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Maritimo's games and 60% of Pacos Ferreira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Maritimo's recent games and 40% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.96 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.18 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Maritimo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 26% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 37%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 54%, Pacos Ferreira 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.64 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.