Maritimo 1-2 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Maritimo welcome Chaves to Estádio dos Barreiros. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 August 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Maritimo — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo at Estádio dos Barreiros this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Maritimo at 0.60 PPG versus Chaves's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Maritimo's 30% rate and Chaves's 0% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Maritimo trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chaves trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Maritimo 67% | Chaves 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Maritimo 33% | Chaves 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.46 xG and Chaves 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.942 / defence 0.991 | Chaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.009. Data: 35 Maritimo games / 1 Chaves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Maritimo 51% | Draw 27% | Chaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Chaves 4.55. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Maritimo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 30% | Chaves 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 51% | Draw 27% | Chaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Maritimo 1.46 / Chaves 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.942 / def 0.991 | Chaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Chaves xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Chaves kick off?
Maritimo vs Chaves kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Chaves?
Maritimo 1 - 2 Chaves.
Where is Maritimo vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Chaves part of?
Maritimo vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 51% chance of winning, Chaves a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Maritimo and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Chaves in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Maritimo's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.75
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.31
0.85
Chaves xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.85 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Maritimo come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chaves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Chaves in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Chaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Chaves in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Chaves have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Maritimo or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chaves in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Chaves runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Chaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Chaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Chaves 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Chaves?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Maritimo 67% BTTS, Chaves 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Maritimo and 0% for Chaves.
On the defensive side: Chaves in 33%; Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Chaves in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Maritimo's recent matches and 0% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Maritimo's recent games and 0% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Chaves tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chaves in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Maritimo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Maritimo 1-2 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.46 xG and Chaves 0.85 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chaves outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Chaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 51% | Draw 27% | Chaves 22%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Chaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 33%, Chaves 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Chaves scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.