FC Porto 5-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Porto at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Porto vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio Do Dragão to face FC Porto in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
FC Porto (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. FC Porto haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Porto have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estádio Do Dragão — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Maritimo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Maritimo haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Maritimo have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward FC Porto. A 1.80 PPG lead over Maritimo (2.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Porto have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Maritimo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Porto, 0 for Maritimo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Porto winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Porto — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 50% versus Maritimo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 65% | Maritimo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 2.00 xG and Maritimo 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.363 / defence 0.912 | Maritimo attack 1.033 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.053. FC Porto carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 FC Porto games / 34 Maritimo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Porto 61% | Draw 21% | Maritimo 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Maritimo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: FC Porto 60% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 61% | Draw 21% | Maritimo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Porto 2.00 / Maritimo 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.363 / def 0.912 | Maritimo attack 1.033 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Maritimo xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Maritimo kick off?
FC Porto vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Maritimo?
FC Porto 5 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is FC Porto vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Maritimo part of?
FC Porto vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 61% chance of winning, Maritimo a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Porto and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): FC Porto 1W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are FC Porto and Maritimo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Porto (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 1.36x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (1.03x) against FC Porto's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.73
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC Porto xG
Total xG
2.99
0.99
Maritimo xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
40.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.99 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, FC Porto have picked up 2.68 PPG on a 29W 4D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. FC Porto haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Maritimo's form line: 9W 11D 14L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. Maritimo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Porto have posted 2.76 PPG from 17 outings (15W 2D 0L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 5W 5D 7L from 17 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Porto are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.15 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Pre-Season
Maritimo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Maritimo in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 29W 4D 1L in their last 34 games (2.68 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Maritimo away?
FC Porto's home record (2.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.76 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Maritimo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Porto have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Porto have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Porto
1
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 3, Maritimo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Maritimo?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 53%, Maritimo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Porto and 53% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Porto's games and 65% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Porto vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Porto's matches and 53% of Maritimo's.
Do FC Porto and Maritimo tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Maritimo 5-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.00 xG and Maritimo 0.99 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.36 / defence 0.91 against Maritimo attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 61% | Draw 21% | Maritimo 18%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 65%, Maritimo 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.