Famalicao 1-0 Nacional – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Famalicao at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Nacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Famalicao welcome Nacional to Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nacional — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nacional's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Famalicao are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Nacional and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Famalicao trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Nacional trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 45% versus Nacional 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 47% | Nacional 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.71 xG and Nacional 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.088 / defence 0.776 | Nacional attack 0.832 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.164. Famalicao's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Famalicao games / 60 Nacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 60% | Draw 24% | Nacional 16%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Nacional 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 30% | Nacional 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Nacional | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 60% | Draw 24% | Nacional 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Famalicao 1.71 / Nacional 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.088 / def 0.776 | Nacional attack 0.832 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Nacional xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Nacional kick off?
Famalicao vs Nacional kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Nacional?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Nacional.
Where is Famalicao vs Nacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Nacional part of?
Famalicao vs Nacional is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Nacional?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 60% chance of winning, Nacional a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Nacional?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Famalicao and Nacional will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Nacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Nacional?
Record (3 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 1 | Nacional 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Nacional in?
Famalicao (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Nacional (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Nacional's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Nacional's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.14
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.46
0.75
Nacional xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
34.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Nacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Nacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.75 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Nacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 17D 19L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nacional's form line: 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Famalicao are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nacional.
Venue Form
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Nacional have gone 4W 9D 17L from 30 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Famalicao are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Nacional are on 1.02 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Nacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Nacional in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Nacional have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Nacional away?
Famalicao's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.70 PPG; Nacional away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Nacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nacional in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Famalicao have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Famalicao's record when hosting Nacional specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
1
Draws
1
Nacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Nacional?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Nacional have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Nacional last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Nacional?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 37%, Nacional 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Famalicao) and 33% (Nacional).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 27% of games; Nacional in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Nacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Nacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Famalicao's recent matches and 43% of Nacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Nacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Famalicao's recent games and 33% of Nacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Nacional tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nacional in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Nacional 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Nacional 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.71 xG and Nacional 0.75 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Nacional attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 60% | Draw 24% | Nacional 16%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Nacional 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nacional's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.