Estoril 1-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Estrela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Estrela meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estrela (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estrela have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Estoril's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Estrela's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estoril lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Estrela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Estrela — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 67% and Estrela 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 71% | Estrela 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.88 xG and Estrela 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.210 / defence 0.977 | Estrela attack 0.738 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.308. Data: 53 Estoril games / 19 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 59% | Draw 23% | Estrela 18%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Estrela 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 50% | Estrela 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 59% | Draw 23% | Estrela 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Estoril 1.88 / Estrela 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.210 / def 0.977 | Estrela attack 0.738 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Estoril (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Estrela xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Estrela kick off?
Estoril vs Estrela kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Estrela?
Estoril 1 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Estoril vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Estrela part of?
Estoril vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 59% chance of winning, Estrela a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estoril and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Estrela?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Estrela 1W.
What form are Estoril and Estrela in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Estrela (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estoril's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (0.74x) against Estoril's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.34
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.82
0.94
Estrela xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Estoril and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Estoril and 0.94 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Estrela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Estoril have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 4D 11L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela's form line: 5W 6D 10L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Estoril against 1.00 for Estrela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estoril have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Estrela in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Estrela in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Estrela have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Estrela away?
Estoril's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.60 PPG; Estrela away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 0-5 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Estoril
1
Draws
1
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, Estrela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Estrela 0-5 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Estrela?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 50%, Estrela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Estoril and 40% for Estrela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Estrela in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Estrela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Estoril's games and 60% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Estoril's matches and 40% of Estrela's.
Do Estoril and Estrela tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Estrela in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Estrela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.88 xG and Estrela 0.94 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.21 / defence 0.98 against Estrela attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 59% | Draw 23% | Estrela 18%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 71%, Estrela 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Estrela's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.05 PPG, Estrela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.