Chaves 1-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Chaves welcome Estoril to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.22 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 1W 2D 1L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Estoril — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.22 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.40 (Estoril). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Estoril in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chaves 33% | Estoril 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 22% | Estoril 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 0.78 xG and Estoril 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.708 / defence 1.095 | Estoril attack 0.980 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.106. Chaves's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Chaves games / 41 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 24% | Draw 30% | Estoril 46%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 2.17. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 50% | Estoril 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 24% | Draw 30% | Estoril 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Chaves 0.78 / Estoril 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.708 / def 1.095 | Estoril attack 0.980 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Estoril (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Estoril xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Estoril kick off?
Chaves vs Estoril kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Estoril?
Chaves 1 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Chaves vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Estoril part of?
Chaves vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 24% chance of winning, Estoril a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Chaves and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Estoril in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.71) and Estoril's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
24%
4.15
30%
3.30
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Chaves xG
Total xG
1.96
1.19
Estoril xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Chaves and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Chaves and 1.19 for Estoril, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.22 PPG, Estoril on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.11 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril in 22%.
Defensively: Estoril in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Estoril in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Estoril have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.25 PPG; Estoril away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chaves or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Estoril in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
2
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Estoril have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Chaves 2-2 Estoril.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chaves 50% BTTS, Estoril 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Chaves and 25% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Estoril in 50%; Estoril in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chaves's recent matches and 0% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chaves's recent games and 25% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Estoril tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Estoril in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves and Estoril share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 8, as Chaves and Estoril drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 0.78 xG and Estoril 1.19 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Estoril attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 24% | Draw 30% | Estoril 46%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 22%, Estoril 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.22 PPG, Estoril 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.