Casa Pia 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Nacional to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Casa Pia at Estádio Nacional this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SC Braga — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 0 for SC Braga and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 39% versus SC Braga 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 39% | SC Braga 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.30 xG and SC Braga 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.985 / defence 1.225 | SC Braga attack 1.472 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.052. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Casa Pia games / 62 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 51%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | SC Braga 1.96. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 50% | SC Braga 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Casa Pia 1.30 / SC Braga 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.985 / def 1.225 | SC Braga attack 1.472 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.90
SC Braga xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs SC Braga kick off?
Casa Pia vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Casa Pia vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs SC Braga part of?
Casa Pia vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 26% chance of winning, SC Braga a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Casa Pia and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and SC Braga in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. SC Braga (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.98x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
26%
3.83
22%
4.47
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
3.19
1.90
SC Braga xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
4%
25.54
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.90 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Casa Pia come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 6D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.32 PPG from 28 outings (21W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Casa Pia's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.36 points per game from 14 outings (11W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Casa Pia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.18 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; SC Braga in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 21W 2D 5L in their last 28 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SC Braga in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Casa Pia and SC Braga runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when SC Braga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Casa Pia
0
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 36%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 36% for Casa Pia and 86% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SC Braga in 43%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Casa Pia's matches and 86% of SC Braga's.
Do Casa Pia and SC Braga tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.30 xG and SC Braga 1.90 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against SC Braga attack 1.47 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 26% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 51%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 39%, SC Braga 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.