Casa Pia vs Estrela Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Estrela at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Estrela.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estrela travel to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Casa Pia have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Estrela's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Estrela's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.90 for Estrela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Estrela edge it 4 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Casa Pia 2–0 Estrela — a Casa Pia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 42% versus Estrela 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 40% | Estrela 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.09 xG and Estrela 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.681 / defence 1.308 | Estrela attack 1.050 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.282. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Estrela's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estrela's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 45 games and Estrela's last 45.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 24% | Draw 23% | Estrela 53%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 4.25 | Draw 4.26 | Estrela 1.89. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Estrela's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 20% (last 10 home games) | Estrela 70% (last 10 away games).

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