Casa Pia 2-2 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estoril have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Estoril away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Casa Pia, 0.90 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Estoril — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 41% versus Estoril 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 38% | Estoril 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.27 xG and Estoril 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.864 / defence 1.140 | Estoril attack 0.715 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.073. Data: 32 Casa Pia games / 66 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 46% | Draw 29% | Estoril 26%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Estoril 3.85. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 46% | Draw 29% | Estoril 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Casa Pia 1.27 / Estoril 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.864 / def 1.140 | Estoril attack 0.715 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Estoril xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Estoril kick off?
Casa Pia vs Estoril kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Casa Pia 2 - 2 Estoril.
Where is Casa Pia vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Estoril part of?
Casa Pia vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 46% chance of winning, Estoril a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Casa Pia and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 0 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Estoril in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.71x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.47
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.15
0.87
Estoril xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.87 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 11W 7D 14L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Estoril's form line: 9W 4D 19L from 32 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.97 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 3W 2D 11L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 0.88 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Estoril in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Estoril have gone 9W 4D 19L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Estoril away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.38 PPG; Estoril away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Estoril in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
4
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Estoril have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Casa Pia) and 31% (Estoril) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Casa Pia and 25% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 38% of games; Estoril in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 31% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Casa Pia's recent games and 25% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Estoril tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Estoril in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Estoril share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 33, as Casa Pia and Estoril drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.27 xG and Estoril 0.87 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estoril outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Estoril attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 46% | Draw 29% | Estoril 26%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 38%, Estoril 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.25 PPG, Estoril 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.