Casa Pia 0-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estoril at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Estoril.

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Analysis

Estoril make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Monday 8 April 2024 at 21:15 UK time.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Estoril have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Estoril away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Casa Pia, 1.10 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Estoril edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Casa Pia 0–4 Estoril — a Estoril win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 27% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Estoril — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 39% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 39% | Estoril 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.07 xG and Estoril 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.549 / defence 0.875 | Estoril attack 1.045 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.261. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.549 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Estoril's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 61 games and Estoril's last 61.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 33% | Draw 29% | Estoril 37%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.01 | Draw 3.41 | Estoril 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 20% (last 10 home games) | Estoril 80% (last 10 away games).

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