Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Casa Pia take on Chaves.

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Fixture Analysis

Casa Pia welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Casa Pia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Casa Pia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Chaves have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 1.20 PPG, Chaves 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Casa Pia have won 1, Chaves 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Casa Pia 3–1 Chaves — a Casa Pia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 28% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Chaves in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 41% versus Chaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | Chaves 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Casa Pia surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Chaves have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.71 xG and Chaves 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.546 / defence 0.854 | Chaves attack 0.661 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.286. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.546 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Chaves's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 64 games and Chaves's last 64.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 31% | Draw 38% | Chaves 31%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.27 | Draw 2.64 | Chaves 3.18. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS Yes probability 26% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Casa Pia's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.44 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 30% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games).

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