Casa Pia 0-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Casa Pia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nacional plays host to Casa Pia versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W W. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.65 in Casa Pia's favour (1.75 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Casa Pia 0% | Arouca 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 0% | Arouca 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.31 xG and Arouca 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.879 / defence 0.917 | Arouca attack 0.933 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.205. Data: 4 Casa Pia games / 38 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Arouca 29%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 0% | Arouca 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Arouca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Casa Pia 1.31 / Arouca 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.879 / def 0.917 | Arouca attack 0.933 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Arouca xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Arouca kick off?
Casa Pia vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Casa Pia vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Arouca part of?
Casa Pia vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 43% chance of winning, Arouca a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Casa Pia and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and Arouca in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.25 | L5 D-L-W-W. Arouca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.93x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.61
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
Arouca xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.03 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.50 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.75 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Arouca in 25%.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Arouca in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Arouca have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Casa Pia or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Arouca in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Casa Pia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Casa Pia
2
Draws
1
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Arouca?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 5, Arouca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Arouca?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Casa Pia) and 25% (Arouca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Casa Pia) and 75% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games; Arouca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 25% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Casa Pia's recent games and 75% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Arouca tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Arouca in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Arouca finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.31 xG and Arouca 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Arouca attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Arouca 29%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 0%, Arouca 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.75 PPG, Arouca 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.