Benfica 2-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Vizela at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vizela in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Benfica have won 1, Vizela 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Vizela in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 55% versus Vizela 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Vizela 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.89 xG and Vizela 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.421 / defence 0.967 | Vizela attack 0.958 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.199. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Benfica games / 38 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 22% | Vizela 22%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Vizela 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Vizela 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 22% | Vizela 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Benfica 1.89 / Vizela 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.421 / def 0.967 | Vizela attack 0.958 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Benfica (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vizela xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Vizela kick off?
Benfica vs Vizela kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Benfica 2 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Benfica vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Vizela part of?
Benfica vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 56% chance of winning, Vizela a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benfica and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vizela?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 1 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Benfica and Vizela in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.42x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.48
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.00
1.11
Vizela xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Benfica and 1.11 for Vizela, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica's recent record stands at 27W 5D 6L from 38 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 16L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 63%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Vizela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 27W 5D 6L in their last 38 games (2.26 PPG), while Vizela have gone 8W 14D 16L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Vizela away?
Benfica's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.05 PPG; Vizela away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Benfica or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Vizela in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Feb 2024, when Benfica won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Vizela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Vizela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 63%, Vizela at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Benfica and 63% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Benfica's games and 68% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Benfica's matches and 63% of Vizela's.
Do Benfica and Vizela tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vizela in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Vizela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vizela 2-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.89 xG and Vizela 1.11 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.42 / defence 0.97 against Vizela attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 56% | Draw 22% | Vizela 22%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Vizela 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.