Benfica 6-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Benfica take on SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Current Form
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
SC Braga have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Benfica's 2.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SC Braga's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Benfica — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
SC Braga — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus SC Braga 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 50% | SC Braga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.02 xG and SC Braga 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.050 / defence 1.062 | SC Braga attack 0.831 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.219. Data: 10 Benfica games / 10 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 30% | Draw 38% | SC Braga 32%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | SC Braga 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 50% | SC Braga 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 30% | Draw 38% | SC Braga 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Benfica 1.02 / SC Braga 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.050 / def 1.062 | SC Braga attack 0.831 / def 0.979 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SC Braga xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs SC Braga kick off?
Benfica vs SC Braga kicked off at 21:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Benfica 6 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Benfica vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs SC Braga part of?
Benfica vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 30% chance of winning, SC Braga a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benfica and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benfica's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (0.83x) against Benfica's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.39
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.09
1.08
SC Braga xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Benfica and 1.08 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benfica's recent record stands at 8W 1D 1L from 10 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 1L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Braga heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Benfica are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against SC Braga's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; SC Braga in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 games (2.50 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or SC Braga away?
Benfica's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.25 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SC Braga in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Benfica
3
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, SC Braga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Benfica 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and SC Braga?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 50%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benfica) and 25% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benfica's recent matches and 50% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benfica's recent games and 25% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and SC Braga tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 6-1 hammering of SC Braga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat SC Braga 6-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.02 xG and SC Braga 1.08 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against SC Braga attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 30% | Draw 38% | SC Braga 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 50%, SC Braga 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.