Benfica 2-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pacos Ferreira travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 5W 0D 2L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 2.14 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Pacos Ferreira trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 62% versus Pacos Ferreira 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 69% | Pacos Ferreira 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.08 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.686 / defence 1.110 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.652 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.421. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.686 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Benfica games / 16 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 61% | Draw 21% | Pacos Ferreira 17%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Pacos Ferreira 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 71% | Pacos Ferreira 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 61% | Draw 21% | Pacos Ferreira 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Benfica 2.08 / Pacos Ferreira 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.686 / def 1.110 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.652 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Benfica (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pacos Ferreira xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Benfica 2 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 61% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benfica and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.69) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.68
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.11
1.03
Pacos Ferreira xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
45.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Benfica and 1.03 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 16 games, going 12W 1D 3L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.81 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 12W 1D 3L in their last 16 games (2.31 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Benfica's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.14 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Benfica or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Benfica's record when hosting Pacos Ferreira specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 71%, Pacos Ferreira 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Benfica) and 29% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Pacos Ferreira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Benfica's games and 43% of Pacos Ferreira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Benfica's recent games and 29% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.08 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.03 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.69 / defence 1.11 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.65 / defence 1.09, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 61% | Draw 21% | Pacos Ferreira 17%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 69%, Pacos Ferreira 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.