Benfica 6-0 AVS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs AVS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AVS make the trip to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
AVS's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, AVS have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 2.20 in Benfica's favour (2.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benfica lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
AVS half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus AVS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 69% | AVS 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 3.01 xG and AVS 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.675 / defence 0.950 | AVS attack 0.711 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.186. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.675 — their λ of 3.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AVS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Benfica games / 30 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 81% | Draw 12% | AVS 7%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | AVS 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 50% | AVS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 81% | Draw 12% | AVS 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 52% | xG Benfica 3.01 / AVS 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.675 / def 0.950 | AVS attack 0.711 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Benfica (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.01
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.80
AVS xG
52%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs AVS kick off?
Benfica vs AVS kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs AVS?
Benfica 6 - 0 AVS.
Where is Benfica vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs AVS part of?
Benfica vs AVS is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 81% chance of winning, AVS a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benfica and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and AVS?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 0W | Draws 1 | AVS 0W.
What form are Benfica and AVS in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. AVS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.68x league average) is weighed against AVS's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.01. Flip it around — AVS's attack (0.71x) against Benfica's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.48
7%
14.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.01
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.81
0.80
AVS xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.48
12%
Draw
14.56
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
5%
20.23
Win to Nil
37%
2.74
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 3.01 expected goals for Benfica and 0.80 for AVS, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs AVS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 24W 4D 4L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
AVS's form line: 6W 12D 14L from 32 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AVS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.69 PPG from 16 outings (14W 1D 1L).
On the road, AVS have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.84 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
AVS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and AVS in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 24W 4D 4L in their last 32 games (2.38 PPG), while AVS have gone 6W 12D 14L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or AVS away?
Benfica's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.69 PPG; AVS away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Benfica or AVS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AVS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AVS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
1
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and AVS?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, AVS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Benfica 3-0 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and AVS?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 44%, AVS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Benfica and 44% for AVS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AVS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play AVS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Benfica's recent matches and 62% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Benfica's matches and 44% of AVS's.
Do Benfica and AVS tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AVS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 6-0 hammering of AVS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat AVS 6-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.01 xG and AVS 0.80 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AVS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.68 / defence 0.95 against AVS attack 0.71 / defence 1.44, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 81% | Draw 12% | AVS 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 69%, AVS 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
AVS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.12 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.