Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Stal Mielec have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stal Mielec in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 48% versus Stal Mielec 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 63% | Stal Mielec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 xG and Stal Mielec 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.885 / defence 1.508 | Stal Mielec attack 0.801 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.118. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Zaglebie Lubin games / 27 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 40%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Stal Mielec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Stal Mielec 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 / Stal Mielec 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.885 / def 1.508 | Stal Mielec attack 0.801 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Stal Mielec xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?
Zaglebie Lubin 3 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 31% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.89) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.80x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.38
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.35
Stal Mielec xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.35 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 4D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.22 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Stal Mielec away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.31 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stal Mielec won 3-0 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Zaglebie Lubin, 69% for Stal Mielec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 38% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 69% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 38% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Stal Mielec 3-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 xG and Stal Mielec 1.35 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 1.51 against Stal Mielec attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 40%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 63%, Stal Mielec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.